Yesterday, we got the PMI survey data for U.S. manufacturing in the month of May and the overall index was slightly above 50, which indicates expansion. So, of course, the headline readers were re-assured that the U.S. is not in recession. Right? Nope.
Continue reading “Numbers That Mean Whatever You Want”
On April 13, I wrote that retail sales were showing real signs of weakness. Now we are seeing the results in the retail stocks and the news is even worse than I expected.
Continue reading “Fed Fantasies vs. Retail Facts”
Unfortunately, most of the information we get on the U.S, economy comes from the federal government. As I have said previously, this data is so messaged by higher mathematics that it has become meaningless or misleading.
Continue reading “More Evidence the Real U.S. Economy is in Recession”
Unthinking and unintelligent economists, of which there are many, are puzzled as to why the flood of cash and ultra-low interest rates unleashed by central banks have not resulted in greater growth. The reason is that cheap liquidity has encouraged speculation, not investment.
Continue reading “How to Ruin an Economy in One Easy Chart”
In a word, yes. There is something new in the global financial system that could cause the mother of all bank runs…negative interest rates.
Continue reading “Could Negative Interest Rates lead to a Bank Run?”
Last week, legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller recommended gold as the asset class to own and declared the bull market in stocks is exhausted.
Continue reading “Major Investors Embracing Gold”
So let me understand what you just told me. You said you bought back into commodities because central bank stimulus and a weaker dollar are boosting copper and oil and all that other good stuff. Have you LOST your MIND?
Continue reading “The Commodity Rally is Over (China Too)”
Finally, the monthly jobs report starts to make a little sense. Today, the much-anticipated April report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a net gain of 160,000 jobs in the U.S. economy, well less than the 200,000+ expected. Goldman Sachs yesterday upped their estimate for today’s report to 245,000! Nice call.
Continue reading “Employment Numbers Do Not Add Up”
As I reported earlier today, the monthly ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index is flashing recession. The March data was released on May 2 and it shows that New Orders have now declined for 17 straight months on a year-over-year basis, with March dropping 4.2% from a year ago.
Continue reading “Another Recession Indicator”
On Friday, we get the April jobs report from the U.S. government. This report may matter more than most.
Continue reading “Jobs: It’s That Time of Month Again”