The Fed Funds Futures are the best market indicator for measuring the expectations of a change in Fed monetary policy. Right now, this indicator says that the market expectation of a Fed rate hike in December is 70%.
I have just two questions.
Is that the rate hike that takes place after Hillary has won the election and a Republican-controlled Congress has promised to bring her down by any means possible while authorities are investigating her emails and the Clinton Foundation for the illegal acts exposed by WikiLeaks and the FBI?
Or is that the rate hike after Trump is elected and the world is plunged into complete uncertainty about what comes next?
At this point, in my mind, I have a better chance of buying the Brooklyn Bridge than the Fed has of raising rates in December. As the market unwinds its expectation of a Fed move, we should see a weaker dollar and higher gold. Like today.